Carbon Brief: Indonesia confidence, nature finance, global policy

Indonesia’s carbon-market week mixed institution-building with project finance: Jakarta highlighted credibility tools for carbon units, Norway ties stayed prominent, and blue-carbon developers kept targeting mangroves. Globally, policy support for cleaner fuels and industrial electrification advanced, while weak carbon-price signals, climate stress on hydropower, and volatile fuel costs reminded buyers to track both transition risk and market integrity.

Indonesia Policy & Finance

• Norway partnership. ANTARA says Indonesia and Norway are expanding climate cooperation through a funding package the outlet puts at US$216 million, keeping forest and emissions-reduction finance central to bilateral ties. ANTARA News

• SRUK credibility push. ANTARA reports that Indonesia is using SRUK to reassure overseas participants about the integrity of domestic carbon assets, a signal that registry and verification credibility remain priority issues. ANTARA News

• Mangrove developer funding. Carbon Pulse reports that a French blue-carbon firm secured seed capital, which the outlet says totals €1 million, with part of the plan focused on expanding Indonesian mangrove restoration work. Carbon Pulse

Prices & Policy Signals

• ECB warning on carbon costs. Carbon Pulse covers an ECB research argument that existing carbon-pricing systems are too limited and inconsistent to reduce the risk of crossing irreversible climate thresholds. Carbon Pulse

• EU allowance tone. Carbon Pulse’s intraday market note said EU carbon allowances looked set to end July higher even as the contract softened over the week, with trading thinning before the seasonal August slowdown. Carbon Pulse

• UK forestry proposal. Carbon Pulse interviews an investor arguing that linking the UK’s official woodland-credit framework to the UK ETS would improve revenue prospects for new tree-planting projects. Carbon Pulse

Nature Markets & Credits

• Soil-credit issuance. Carbon Pulse cites a report saying credits from soil projects carrying the ICVCM’s CCP mark have already surpassed last year’s volume, while the same report places broader soil issuance in 2025 at about 4.5 million units after roughly 1.6 million in 2024. Carbon Pulse

• Nature offtake demand. Carbon Pulse quotes a market specialist saying multi-year purchase contracts can make nature projects easier to finance by giving developers more predictable cash flow. Carbon Pulse

Energy Transition & Climate Risk

• Dutch SAF support. Carbon Pulse says EU authorities allowed Netherlands subsidy programmes for cleaner aviation fuel, with the outlet putting the combined value at €290 million. Carbon Pulse

• Airline and energy earnings. Carbon Pulse reports that IAG’s latest profit was pressured by more expensive jet fuel tied to Middle East conflict, while Engie and OMV delivered stronger first-half results. Carbon Pulse

• German steel electrification. Carbon Pulse says Salzgitter has begun decarbonisation work at HMK’s Duisburg plant, including an EAF that the outlet describes as the biggest in Germany and the second-biggest in the EU. Carbon Pulse

• Hydropower stress in Africa. Mongabay reports that drought has weakened hydro reliability in Zambia and Zimbabwe; according to the outlet, Zambia’s grid was over four-fifths hydro-powered and Zimbabwe’s was roughly half hydro-powered in 2024, bringing coal back into policy debate. Mongabay